Photo : Institute for the Study of War
01 May 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #501
War in Ukraine Day: 430 & 431
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 30 April, a Ukraine military spokesperson reported on the situation in Bakhmut. According to the report, despite continued shelling by Russia in the west of Bakhmut targeting its main supply route, it has been unsuccessful in disrupting the logistical supply to Ukraine troops. In a statement, Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Cherevaty said: “The Russians have been talking for several weeks about conquering the 'road of life' as well as keeping fire control over it. In reality, everything is different.”
On 29 April, Ukraine’s spokesperson demanded that Germany deliver air defence systems, tanks, and ammunition, so Ukraine’s military can prepare for the counteroffensive. According to the spokesperson: “For the planned counteroffensive, we need more armored vehicles, tanks and artillery systems, long-range ammunition in the shortest possible time.”
On 29 April, Ukraine’s Defence Minister affirmed the completion of the preparations towards the “counterassault” against Russia. The equipment delivery has been “partially delivered,” according to the Minister and expects Ukraine to launch a ground offensive soon.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 30 April, Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced replacing deputy minister with Colonel General Alexei Kuzmenkov. His role will be to monitor the logistical support for the armed forces. On Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Wagner Group leader Yeveny Prigozhin stated it would be a “tragedy” for Russia. He also complained about the shortage of ammunition: “We (Wagner) have only 10-15 per cent of the shells that we need.”
On 29 April, Prigozhin warned on withdrawing the Wagner Group forces from Bakhmut city due to the high casualty rate. He reported the loss rate to be five times more than the required artillery replacement. He added: “If the ammunition deficit is not replenished, we are forced, in order not to run like cowardly rats afterwards, to either withdraw or die.” Earlier as per the reports from the UK intelligence, the number of deaths have been high for both Ukraine and Russia. The recent claims from Prigozhin over withheld ammunition and well-equipped Ukrainian troops has created confusing image on Russia’s stake in Bakhmut.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 29 April, the European Commission announced the signing of the grain deal with eastern European countries for agricultural imports from Ukraine. Previously tensions arose due to Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland imposing restrictions to Ukraine’s grain imports. According to the report, wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds would come under safeguard measures.
On 29 April, Deutsche Welle reported that South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol stated that the government is deciding on if it should provide lethal aid to Ukraine. The government is reported to be closely tracking the battlefield scenario to take measures as per international law.
References
Kateryna Tyshchenko, “Russians far from seizing "road of life" to Bakhmut – Defence Force,” pravda.com.ua, 29 April 2023
“Ukraine updates: Kyiv 'urgently' needs more military aid from Germany,” Taiwan News, 29 April 2023
“Wagner chief warns against Ukraine counterattack 'tragedy',” english.ahram.org.eg, 30 April 2023
Anna Mikhailova, “Prigozhin threatens to leave Bakhmut unless Wagner given ammunition,” 30 April 2023
David Brunnstrom and Eric Beech, “On lethal aid to Ukraine, South Korean leader says Seoul considering its options,” 29 April 2023
Leonie Kijewski and Bartosz Brzeziński, “Eastern EU countries strike deal with Commission to clear Ukrainian grain glut,” 28 April 2023
“Ukraine updates: Wagner head says heavy losses in Bakhmut,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav
HUNGARY
Pope Francis' visit to Hungary
On 30 April, Hungary saw thousands of people gathering on the Danube banks of to pray with Ukrainian refugees in Budapest for Pope Francis’ final Mass, who is known for advocating compassion towards migrants. His visit to Hungary was primarily aimed at embracing the country's large Catholic population, but he also spoke about the importance of building a united Europe. The visual highlight of his visit was the Mass held in Kossuth Lajos Square, attended by an estimated 50,000 people, including Hungary's President and Prime Minister. In his speech, Pope spoke out against rising nationalism and urged Hungarians to fight against individualism, indifference towards the underprivileged and foreign, and closed doors towards migrants and the poor. (“Pope Francis urges unity in final Mass in Hungary,” Deutsche Welle, 01 May 2023)
FRANCE
Credit rating agency Fitch announces reduction in rating amid protests
On 01 May, Le Monde reported that France is set to face more nationwide protests as it tries to move past the divisive pension law that caused widespread anger and social unrest. Moreover, France's Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced that France's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) had been reduced. He affirmed the French government's firm commitment to consolidate public finances, despite credit ratings agency Fitch downgrading the country's debt worthiness. The agency cited weak fiscal metrics, high government debt, expenditure rigidities and social and political pressures, as reflected in the protests the pension reform bill, as high drivers for the rating. In response, Maire insisted that the decision was not a fair reflection of the facts and pledged to continue to pass structural reforms for the country. However, Fitch warned that these protests would complicate fiscal consolidation in France in future and could further strengthen radical and anti-establishment forces. Despite this, France's retirement age will remain among the lowest in the developed countries, even after the pension reform raises it from 62 to 64. (“Macron faces Labor Day protests,” Le Monde, 01 May 2023; “France pledges 'structural reforms' after Fitch downgrade,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023)
REGIONAL
Ukraine foreign ministry complains on agricultural imports amid war challenges
On 29 April, the Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry sent a formal note to the Polish and EU representatives, claiming the restrictions contravened the association agreement between Kyiv and the EU, as well as the EU Single Market norms. Ukraine has lodged a formal complaint against Poland over restrictions on the import of its agricultural products, as the conflict in the country has affected transportation routes. Recently, Poland and other neighboring countries imposed temporary trade barriers on grains and other goods, following protests by local farmers over a drop in the prices of their produce. Grain exports are vital to Ukraine's economy, accounting for a significant proportion of the world's wheat, corn, and barley markets. The EU has reached a preliminary agreement with Ukraine's neighbors, including Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, to withdraw any unilateral measures against Ukrainian produce in exchange for a €100m support package for affected farmers.(“Ukraine protests 'unacceptable' Warsaw agricultural bans,” Deutsche Welle, 29 April 2023)
ECONOMY
UK microchip company proposes to sell shares in the US
On 01 May, BBC News reported on the submission of an application by Arm, a UK microchip designing company to sell its shares in the US, which could lead to the largest stock market listing this year, aiming to raise up to USD 10 billion. Arm's designs are used by household brands such as Apple and Samsung, and chip manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, to build their own processors. Despite being considered the "crown jewel" of the UK's technology sector, it decided not to pursue a London Stock Exchange listing, raising concerns over the UK market's ability to attract tech company stock offerings. Moreover, Softbank, which suffered losses due to the declining valuations of its investments in technology start-ups, is pushing ahead with the multi-billion dollar sale of Arm, subject to market conditions. (Mariko Oi, “UK chip giant Arm files for blockbuster US share listing,” BBC News, 01 May 2023)